THE SETUP

The Opposing View | nc state

All-Time Records:

• Series: nc state 33-10
• At ncsu: nc state 18-2; including 18 straight
• Since Joining the ACC: nc state 5-1
• Streak: nc state has won 5 straight, including 3-0 last season

“Revenge is a dish best served cold.” -Various Sources

It’s time.  It’s time to stick it to the wolfpack, who swept all three games last year against the Hokies.  A red hot 5-3 VT team heads to Raleigh, where the Hokies have not beaten the wolfpack since 1917.  Since then, Tech has dropped 18 straight contests at nc state.  I guess Tech is due?  And this is just the team to do it.  The Hokies have gone 4-0 this year against uva, bc, and fsu, whom VT was just 4-11 against in ACC play before this season.  They won at bc for the first time ever and at uva for the first time in 40 years.  I am saying it right now: the Hokies will win this game and snap that streak!

Don’t expect much offense in this game, though.  These two teams rank #11 and #12 in the ACC in points per game, with nc state at the bottom.  nc state is still looking for a quality point guard to run their offense.

The difference in this game is that while VT has a great defense, the pack do not.  In fact, the wolfpack rank dead last in scoring defense and scoring offense in ACC play.  They are slow and do not do a good job of helping on screens or kick-outs.  VT must knock down the open looks they will get and push the ball to get points in transition.

THE NUMBERS

Key Stat: The pack are dead last in ACC play in scoring offense and defense.  Not a good combination.  unc held nc state to just 13 first half points in early January.

THE GAME

Expect this game to be close.  In ACC play, five of eight games for the Hokies have come down to the final shot or overtime.  Tech has won four of those.  For the pack, four of their seven ACC games have been decided by three points or less and state has won three of them, including the buzzer-beating dunk by McCauley against wake on Sunday.

The wolfpack were picked to finish third in the ACC this season.  Things seemed to be looking up in Raleigh with stars Ben McCauley, Gavin Grant, and Brandon Costner returning from last year’s squad, along with another starter in Courtney Fells.  Plus, they added Rivals.com’s #10 recruit in the nation - J.J. Hickson. 

But things have not been rosey for the pack.  The main reason seems to be chemistry.  To use a football analogy, adding Hickson to this returning cast was like adding Percy Harvin to uva’s two-tight end formation.  He just doesn’t fit the personnel or the system.  McCauley and Costner are two unathletic guys who like to play in the half court set and shoot from the outside, or run pick-and-rolls.  Hickson is a freakish athlete who wants to run or get the ball down in the low post with his back to the basket.  He plays an NBA type game, mostly one-on-one.

As a result, Costner and McCauley have really struggled.  They are just 4th and 6th on the team in scoring after being #1 and #3 last year.   They combined for 31.2 points per game last year.  This year, they are 15.6, exactly half of last season.  But McCauley did have a game-winning tap-in against wake, which may raise his confidence.

The wolfpack run everything through Hickson now.  He is the leading contender for ACC Rookie of the Year, averaging 15.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and 62% from the field.  He’s #1 among ACC freshmen in all of those categories except rebounds, where he is #2.

Because Hickson is the focus of this offense, Grant and Fells productivity have gone up.  They are great athletes also, and can keep pace with Hickson.  Those two guys both average in double digits and love to get to the rim.

KEYS TO WIN

• Hokie Turnovers: Want the #1 key to the game? This is it: In Tech’s five ACC wins, they’re averaging 14 turnovers, committing no more than 17 in any of those games. In the three ACC losses, the Hokies have had at least 22 turnovers each time. (I’m going to leave this at #1 every game until it is proven wrong)
• Avoid a Hangover: Tech had a hangover after the emotional win at uva, and dug themselves into a huge halftime deficit at georgia tech.  Tech needs to avoid a repeat in this game.  Jump on the pack early.  These fans were raining boos on their own team 10 minutes into the wake game.  Get up early, and the crowd will turn on their team.
• A.D.’s First Shot: Vassallo is 12/23 on threes in the Cassell in ACC play, but 7/27 on the road.  If he can hit his first three, it could get his confidence up and help open things up for the low post players, as it did against fsu.  He’ll get open looks against this state defense.
• Attack the Tin: VT’s offense looks at its best when the Hokies get out in transition.  To do that, they have to get stops on defense, either via turnovers or rebounds quickly outletted to guards.  state doesn’t not hustle back all the time.  Take advantage of this.  The wolfpack D is much better in the half court since they have long, rangy bodies.
• Exploit the state Point Guards: nc state still has not found a quality replacement for Atsur at the point.  Delaney and Thorns need to put heat on the pack guards out near half court.  Force them to pick the ball up far from the basket where they can’t feed it in to Hickson. 
• Make Hickson Earn His Points: Hickson shoots 62%.  That’s good.  That’s also a lot of easy layups.  Tech needs to make him earn his buckets, even if it means fouling him.  His FT% is barely higher than his FG%.  Don’t let him leak out for transition dunks.
• Attack the Zone: nc state will run a 1-2-2 zone at times.  Expect it against VT, since VT has had troubles with zones.  Tech must penetrate into the teeth of the zone and then reverse the ball for open jumpers, or find a soft spot in the zone in the high post or along the baseline and shoot the ball or go at the basket.

THE LINEUPS