Virginia Tech basketball is just a little over a month away from tipping off.  Before we start breaking down the Hokies prospects (thumbs up!) for this season, let’s look at the ACC as a whole.  It’s prediction time, baby!

Over the next month every media gadfly in the college hoops business will hit you with their ”expert opinion”.  What do they really know?  Nothing.  A mountaineer could make these picks. 

Here’s how the powers-that-be make their cookie cutter ACC predictions:

• Pick unc or duke to win the conference (this year unc).
• Pick the one you didn’t pick to win to finish 2nd.
• Hype up one other team as a “serious contender” to win the conference, but don’t actually pick them ahead of unc or duke.  [Note: this year, the buzz seems to be around miami but wake is my darkhorse… whoops, I’m violating my own rule]
• Draw the other teams out of a hat and place them 4th through 12th.
• Tell everyone how smart you are, which isn’t tough to claim since duke or unc has won the regular season title 10 of the last 12 years and has won the ACC Tournament 11 of the last 12 years.
• Lather, rinse, repeat formula next year.

Well, I’m taking their precious formula and shoving it where the ecu girls like it.  I’ve come up with my own, super-scientific, mega-smart, hyper-perfect mathmatical formula.  Numbers never lie!  That’s right, number nerds, we are going technical on you. 

In the Super-Terrific-ACC-Predictornator, the higher the number the better.  It is based on four parts:

• Returning Players - points calculated on past playing time
• Experience/Win Factor - multiply ACC wins last season by Returning Players Total - this rewards teams that have experience AND won a lot, since crappy but experienced players likely will still stink worse than that leftover fish someone microwaved at work the other day
• Awards - Points are given for players that finished on the various All-ACC teams (overall, freshman, defense) last year
• Recruiting Total - points calculated based on each recruit’s Scout.com and Rivals.com star rating (1-5 stars) then taking the average of the two totals

So that’s the parts, let’s see the results [drum roll]…
ACC Regular Season Standings for 2008-09:

1. unc - 22.2 points
2. wake - 16.4
3. duke - 15.8
4. VT - 14.0
5. miami - 13.9
6. clemson - 13.3
7. fsu - 12.1
8. nc state - 10.8
9. ga tech - 10.6
10. bc - 10.5
11. md - 10.5
12. uva - 9.6

Pow!  Right in the kisser.  unc gets a woodshed beat-down victory but wake jumps all the way up to #2.  If VT can pull off that fourth place finish, that would be a fourth first round bye in the ACC Tournament in five seasons for the burnt orange and Chicago maroon according to the Super-Terrific-Never-Wrong-ACC-Predictornator. 

You also have to love maryland and virginia at the bottom.  Looks like the hoos are going to get used to pulling up the rear this year.  When does lacrosse season start?

Now, for those of you wondering how I came up with those numbers, here’s the parts broken down in more detail.  Click ‘Read more’ below to see the ingredients…

BREAKING DOWN THE CATEGORIES
Returning Players

Here’s how this point total was calculated:

• 1 point for every returning player that averaged 20+ minutes per game (must have played a majority of the games)
• 0.6 points for each returnee that averaged 7-19 minutes per game
• 0.2 for every other returning player

Example: VT’s total came to 7.6 with 4 guys averaging 20+ minutes (Allen, Vassallo, Delaney, Thorns), 5 guys averaging 7-19 minutes got VT 3.0 points (Thompson, Bell, Witcher, Diakite, Hudson), and 3 others earned VT 0.6 points (Amalfe, Debnam, and Vinson)

Leader: Surprisingly, it is wake forest at 8.2.  The return six players averaging 20+ minutes and another three role players (7-19 minutes). 

Bottom: fsu at 4.2.  They return just four guys that played more than 7 minutes per game last year.

Upperclassmen Bonus

• 0.4 was given for every Senior returning player that averaged 20+ minutes per game (ie: an A.D. Vassallo)
• 0.2 was given for every Junior returning player that averaged 20+ minutes or every Senior that averaged 7-19 minutes last year (ie: Wayne Ellington or Cheick Diakite)
• 0.1 was given for every Junior returning player that averaged 7-19 minutes (ie: Lewis Witcher) or every Sophomore that averaged 20+ minutes last year (ie: Jeff Allen)

Example: VT got 1.0 for A.D. Vassallo (.4), Diakite (.2), and .1 each for Witcher, Allen, Delaney, and Thorns.

Leader: unc (shocker) with 2.0 points.  Lots of upperclassmen for the heels.

Bottom: md with 0.7

Experience/Win Factor

For this, I took a team’s winning percentage in ACC play last year and multiplied it by their Returning Player Total, and then multiplied that by 0.6.  The last multiplication is to water it down a bit since teams are already getting credit for their experience.  The 0.6 I pulled out of a hat (a scientific one, though) so that the top team, unc, would have a score of around 5. 

This category factors that while a team may have experience, they might be experienced losers and affects their overall score.

Example: (VT) .56 win % multiplied by 8.6 Returning Player Total multiplied by 0.6 = 2.9

Leader: unc at 5.1 - no surprise there

Bottom: bc at 0.9 - if you return very few guys and you only won four ACC games… you do the math

Awards

For this section, a player earned their school a bonus based on the honors the ACC gave them.  This only counted towards returning players and you could not earn double points for the same category (ie: hansbrough only counted once towards All-ACC).  This gives teams another bonus for having stars.

• ACC Player of the Year - 2 points
• ACC First Team - 1.5
• ACC Second Team - 1.0 (Vassallo)
• ACC Third Team - 0.5
• ACC Honorable Mention - 0.2
• ACC Freshman Team - 0.3 (Allen)
• ACC Freshman Honorable Mention - 0.2
• ACC Defensive Team - 0.5
• ACC Defensive Honorable Mention - 0.2 (Allen)

The Hokies totaled 1.5 in this category.

Leader: unc at 3.9.  Domination here.  Tied for second were VT, bc, and miami at 1.5.  Woodshed like beating.

Bottom: nc state and uva at 0 with georgia tech at 0.2

Recruiting Total

I took the star rating for each school’s signees and multiplied the stars by 0.2.  I did this with their Scout.com and Rivals.com rankings.  fsu led the way with six recruits earning 21 stars on Scout  and 24 stars on Rivals.  I then averaged the two totals, so for fsu it came out to 4.5 – (21*.2 = 4.2) + (24*.2 = 4.8)/2

VT, with Gene Swindle (2 stars) and Victor Davila (3 stars), finished at 1.0 –  (5*.2 = 1.0) + (5*.2 = 1.0)/2

Leader: fsu as mentioned above with 4.5

Bottom: maryland, who signed, or should I say kept, just one recruit at 0.8.  That’s thanks in part to benedict gilchrist transferring to south florida.  This guy moves more than David Banner (Incredible Hulk reference for you young-ins).

Notes: wake signed three low post players that were 5-stars according to Rivals to go along with Chaz McFarland and two All-ACC Freshman players from last year.  Hence why they are my darkhorse, but may be a year away.