First Round Recap: VT 74, fairfield 57 Boxscore

SEMI-FINAL OPPONENT - xavier (Friday, 1:30 PM EST - ESPNU)

Finally, the Virginia Tech Hokies will face a team that, according to preseason rankings and expectations, is on par with them. xavier is sitting at 29th in both polls while VT is 33/39. This game is a resume builder. A win here will look great come March selection time, considering xavier is picked to win the A-10 and has made three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, going 4-3 in that time. In reality, the Hokies would be happy with one quality win in this tournament. That just got a little harder since seton hall stunned #19/20 usc last night. That means if Tech loses to xavier, they would likely play seton hall, which wouldn’t necessarily be a quality win even if the Hokies beat them in the 3rd place game. So I guess there’s only one thing left to do - win the whole [darn] thing!

Both teams are coming off seasons in which they made the final eight of a postseason tournament - the difference is for the musketeers, that tournament was the NCAA (30-7 overall) while it was the NIT for Tech. But while VT returns eight of their top nine players, xavier lost three of their top six scorers (including #1 and #3) and their top two point guards.

The Hokies must exploit xavier’s inexperience at guard. Tech needs to really put pressure on them on the perimeter and keep the musketeers from feeding the ball inside. Dante Jackson will start at the point, but he is more of a shooting guard. Terrell Holloway, a freshman, will spell Jackson or Dante will shift to the 2. Holloway is more of a true point but will be playing just his fourth collegiate game Friday. He did break out with 12 in their 75-71 win against mizzou.

Unlike VT, who gets 75% of their points from their Big 3 (Vassallo, Allen, and Delaney), xavier’s strength is their balance, especially on the wing and inside. Derrick Brown (PF) and C.J. Anderson (G/F) were both All A-10 Preseason selections and are averaging 11.3 and 9 points per game respectively. Another wing, B.J. Raymond is averaging 11 points per game. Four other players are averaging between 6 and 9 points per game. That means everyone, even A.D. Vassallo, must chip in on the defensive end.

Keys to the Game:

• Limit 2nd Chances/Shoot Wisely: xavier has finished at least +13 in rebounding margin in all three games, including an eye-popping +15 against missouri. The musketeers are especially stout on the defensive glass. This is largely due to the fact that their starting lineup is all over 6′5″ with Brown at 6′8″ and Jason Love at 6′9″. The Hokies must limit xavier’s offensive boards and take smart shots on offense since offensive rebounds will be tough to come by. Also, expect Hank Thorns to match-up with Terrell Holloway and Brad Redford when they are in since they are the only guys even close to him in height.
• Do Not Delay Delaney: Malcolm has scored just 8 of his 43 points this season in the first half. With xavier’s inexperience at the point guard position, this is an area for Tech to exploit. Delaney needs to get into the flow early and find his shots.

Probability of a VT Win: 40% (I’d have called it 50/50 if VT had J.T.)

TOURNAMENT OVERVIEW: THE FIELD (current ranking / team / last season’s results)

• chattanooga (18-13)
• fairfield (14-16) The Opposing View
• #13/12 memphis (38-2; C-USA Champs; NCAA Runner-Up)
• missouri (16-16)
• seton hall (17-15)
• #19/20 usc (21-12: NCAA First Round; no more O.J. Mayo)
• VT (21-14; NIT Final Eight)
• ~#29 xavier (30-7; NCAA Elite Eight)

THE SETUP

This weekend the Hokies will try to become the second straight ACC team to win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off after the miami hurricanes blew through the US territory and captured the tournament champsionship. For a couple of Hokies, this game will be a homecoming. Both senior A.D. Vassallo and freshman Victor Davila are originally from Puerto Rico, and A.D. played for the National Team this past summer.

For the Hokies to take the crown in this tournament, they are going to have to improve on the offensive end. Tech is shooting just 36% from the field after facing two mid-major schools. Tech’s guards (if you count A.D. as a forward) are shooting just 20% (9/45).

But Greenberg’s patented Bud Foster-like defense is still in effect and VT has held their two opponents to a similar 36% field goal percentage, including just 27% on threes. The Hokies have blocked 14 shots through two games, compared to just two by their smaller opponents. They say defense wins championships and the Hokies will put that statement to the test this weekend.

TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK

The favorite has to be last year’s NCAA runner-up, memphis. Gone is the #1 overall NBA pick, Derrick Rose, and leading scorer, Chris Douglas-Roberts, but in is Rivals.com’s #6 overall player in the Class of 2008, Tyreke Evans. All he has done through two games is average 19 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 steals, and 3.5 assists. Also back are some key ingredients from last year, Robert Dozier, Antonio Anderson, Shawn Taggart, and former VT recruit, Doneal Mack. Wesley Witherspoon, Wynton’s brother, is also seeing significant minutes for the tigers as a freshman.

usc is another team that could contend for the title. O.J. Mayo has left the building for the NBA but say hello to DeMar DeRozan, Rivals.com’s #2 player from the Class of 2008. DeMar has DeSkills to pay DeBills. He scored 14 points in his DeBut. He averaged 29 points per game last year for Dr. Dre’s alma mater, Compton HS (I made that up about Dr. Dre). Dwight Lewis and Taj Gibson, who both averaged double-digits last season and helped usc to the NCAA Tournament, are back. They have combined for 36.5 ppg through two games.

The trojans are in the same half of the bracket as usc and should face the tigers in a Battle Royale Friday night. Tech will likely finish the winner or loser of this game, assuming VT wins their first game and depending on what they do in the Second Round.

xavier, who defeated georgia, purdue, and wvu in the NCAA Tournament last year, are the best bet to win the other half of the tournament along with Virginia Tech. The musketeers lost their #1 and #3 scorers from last year, but they have a balanced attack this season. They have five players averaging between 9.5 and 11.0 points per game through two games, and another three guys averaging around 7 ppg. Derrick Brown and C.J. Anderson are both preseason All-A-10 selections. But they are inexperienced at the point position, and Greenberg always talks about how important guard play is, especially in tournaments.

FINAL GAME (Sunday, Time TBD)

Check back here for a preview after the first two rounds.

FIRST ROUND OPPONENT PREVIEW(Thursday, 11 AM EST - ESPNU)

The Hokies take on the fairfield [shoot, no idea what their nickname is... I know they are in connecticut...] stags [phew, thank you wikipedia]. VT has twice met the stags before with both being played on neutral courts:

• 2000 - VT, 65-61 @syracuse
• 1973 - VT, 77-76 @World’s Self-Proclaimed Most Famous Arena, MSG. The Hokies won this NIT 2nd Round match-up on their way to the NIT Championship!

Here’s the rundown on the stag party:

• Location: Fairfield, CT
• Enrollment: 4k undergrad, 1k grad
• Religious Affiliation: Roman Catholic/Jesuits (VT’s 2nd straight Catholic opponent)
• Conference: Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
• NCAA Tournament Appearances: 1 - 1997 (lost to #1 unc)
• Last Season: Finished tied for 5th at 11-7 in the MAAC and lost in the opening round of the conference tourney to loyola (md)
• Lost only game to memphis, 90-63
• Leading Scorer (This Year/Last Year) - Warren Edney (24.0 ppg/6.4 ppg) and Jonathan Han (18.0 ppg/11.7 ppg)
• Leading Rebounder - Anthony Johnson (7.3 rpg/6.0 rpg)
• Assists Leader - Jonathan Han (6.2 apg/7.0 apg)
• Best Player - #3 Jonathan Han - 6′0″ senior point guard

Han is a preaseason All-MAAC selection and he can really do it all. VT must shut him down like they shut down Jeremy Goode.

fairfield has been picked by Athlon to finish 2nd in the MAAC. They return four starters from last year’s squad. But VT should have an easy time with them *if* they finally figure things out on offense and can limit Han’s production.

Key to the Game: There’s no ‘O’ in Guard but there needs to be - Virginia Tech must get more on the offensive end from their guards if they are going to make noise in this tournament. The fairfield game is a chance for Thorns, Bell, and Hudson to build some confidence before they play a much better xavier (or missouri) team in the semi-finals. Those three guys are just 3/26 (12%) from the field on the season and 0/8 on threes. Even Delaney, who finished last season on fire, is just 6/19 (32%). He only had 5 points on Monday before going nuts in the final 140 seconds and pouring in 13 points to lead VT to victory.

Probability of a VT win: 75%